Wheat

Friday’s Recap
March Wheat futures ended the day at a contract low of 533’0 Friday, even. Overall, 89,380 contracts were traded, with 55,084 done in March. Across all maturities, open interest closed at a one month high of 458,350, adding 64 (0.0140%). March open interest fell 2,211, or 0.82%, to 266,226.

Technicals
March Chicago wheat futures made new contract lows on Friday but were able to finish the day back near unchanged. The RSI had reached oversold which may have helped spark some relief, that has so far carried over into the start of this week’s trade. The Bulls need to see a close back above 540-542 to see additional relief. To turn the charts Bullish, there’s a lot more work to be done.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 548 1/2-554 1/4****, 574 1/2-577 1/2***
Pivot: 540-542
Support: 520 3/4-529 1/4***

Popular Options

The Jan 540 put saw the most changing hands with 1,115 contracts done. Calls with the highest open interest are the March 700 strike (15,143), and for the puts are the March 500 strike (4,546).

Volatility Update
As measured by WVL, implied volatility finished the day slightly lower, down 0.091 to end the session at 25.38. The 30-day historical volatility ended the session unchanged on the session nan% to nan%. The WVL Skew was moderately up with the 30-day higher by 0.12, finishing the session at a one week high of 6.14.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.23.24)

Below is a look at historical price averages for March wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.23.24)

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Fund were net sellers of nearly 21k contracts, growing their net short position to 87,401, the largest since the spring.

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