Market Commentary  09/25/20 3:14:57 PM Printer Friendly VersionPrinter Friendly Version

Friday September 25, 2020

Corn ended the week on a firmer note with CZ rising 1 ¾ cents and CH up 1 cent as corn finished higher for the first time in five sessions. This week, CZ fell 13 ¼ cents and CH was 14 ¼ cents lower. Commodity fund buying helped support today’s trade as funds purchased an estimated 5500 corn contracts as of midday. Harvest pressure in front of the weekend was light as most producers are just getting started or have yet to begin. Traders expect Monday’s crop conditions report to estimate that 15% of U.S. corn harvest is complete with most of the progress in the southern states. Corn also found light technical support today with CZ closing above the 20-day moving average of $3.64. There was some commercial pricing as the week ended, which was thought to be tied to Chinese buying. China will observe the autumn festival holiday from October 1 – 7. Argentine farmers have begun planting their 2021 corn crop. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that 11% of intended acres have been seeded. The average trade guess of September 1st corn stocks in next Wednesday’s quarterly grain stocks report is 2.250 billion bu., or nearly the same as the 2019/20 ending stocks estimate of 2.253 billion bu. in the September WASDE report.

After closing lower the past four sessions, soybeans reversed course and settled higher to finish the week. SX was 2 ½ cents firmer and SF added 3 cents. This week, SX and SF each lost 41 cents. Commodity funds were back on the buy side of the ledger today with midsession purchases estimated at 4700 soybean contracts. Additional support came from talk that China was buying U.S. soybeans again today, although amounts were not thought to be large. FAS this morning flashed sales of 100,000 MTs of U.S. soymeal to unknown destinations. There was a report that a large Brazilian crusher was importing beans from Uruguay to keep its plants running. Brazil has already imported an estimated 70,000 MTs of Argentine soybeans – it typically only imports about 20,000 MTs a year. At least seven Brazilian soy plants are said to be taking extended downtime in November due to a lack of domestic soybeans. The average trade guess for September 1 soybean stocks in next Wednesday’s quarterly stocks report is 576 million bu., vs. the 575 million bu. 2019/20 ending stocks estimate in the September WASDE report.

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