Market Commentary  06/14/19 3:45:09 PM Printer Friendly VersionPrinter Friendly Version

Friday June 14, 2019

Corn finished the week with a strong performance as CN tacked on another 11 cents and CZ was 7 ¾ cents better. This week, CN rose 37 ¼ cents and CZ was 29 ¾ cents higher. All futures months through CU20 set life of contract highs today as traders worry that planted acres will be significantly lower than the 89.8 million that the USDA projected in the June crop report. Estimates for U.S. corn planting progress in Monday’s crop conditions report are in the 89% to 92% range. This will almost certainly be the final report that shows any significant increase in planting progress. Wet Midwest weather forecasts for the upcoming week were also somewhat supportive today. Although an inch or two of rain over the next seven days would generally be favorable for crop development, forecasts are indicating that much of the central Midwest could see twice that amount. Expectations are that the corn crop condition rating in Monday’s report will show a modest improvement from a week ago when 59% of the U.S. crop was rated as good or excellent. The USDA did announce this morning the sale of 175,000 MT’s of U.S. corn to Mexico for the 2019/20 marketing year.

Soybeans finished a strong week with another higher close. SN rose 8 ¾ cents today and SX added 8 ¼ cents leaving both months with a gain this week of 40 ½ cents. Spillover support from the strong corn market helped push beans higher today, but the main source of strength came from wet weather forecasts which show 2” to 4” rain amounts over much of the Midwest the next seven days. The crop progress report on Monday is expected to show U.S. soybeans 80% to 83% planted, but the June 24th report will not show much further progress should weather forecasts verify. Like corn, agronomists worry that the lateness of soybean planting will result in lower yields than experienced in recent years. Gains were limited today by the bearish fundamental picture as the projection of over 1 billion bu. of 2019/20 ending stocks leaves room for a smaller 2019 crop especially given the record South American crop and lack of export demand for U.S. soybeans.
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