Market Commentary  01/10/20 2:59:01 PM Printer Friendly VersionPrinter Friendly Version

Friday January 10, 2020

CORN

Corn closed 2¾ cents higher after seeing some initial weakness immediately after the S&D report was issued at 11 am. CH finished the week steady. Funds were buyers of 3,000 contracts mid-session and held a short position of 99,000 contracts to start the day. For a report week, trading activity seemed subdued. Weekly export sales were poor at 6.4 mln. bu. and bring YTD commitments to 729 mln. bu. vs. 1,271 mln. bu. last year. The January S&D report was an interesting mix. Production 13.692 bln. bu. (-31), Feed/Residual 5.525 bln. bu. (+250), FSI 6.770 bln. bu. (-20), Exports 1.775 bln. bu. (-75), and ending stocks 1.892 bln. bu. (-18.) The stocks to use ratio still comfortable at 13.4%. Harvested acres are 81.5 mln. (-.2) and yield is 168.0 bpa (+1.) Yield upward revision surprised the trade - the drop in exports did not. Feed/Residual increase required due to adjustments made in the 18/19 balance sheet (ending stocks up 107 mln. bu.) and the December 1st quarterly stocks report. December 1st stocks at 11.389 bln. bu. were below expectations and 550 mln. bu. below last year. World corn production up slightly to 1,100 MMT with Brazil and Argentine production unchanged at 101 MMT and 50 MMT respectively. World corn usage is 23 MMT above production.

SOYBEANS
Soybeans closed 2 cents higher. Funds were buyers of 3,000 contracts at mid-session and held an estimated short of 8,000 contracts this morning. SH gained 5 cents this week. Weekly export sales were 13.1 mln. bu. and bring YTD commitments to 1,094 mln. bu. vs. 1,116 mln. bu. last year. The S&D report came in close to expectations and the trade has been focusing more on Chinese trade, so it felt like trade activity was limited after the release today. Production 3.558 bln. bu. (+8), Crush and Exports unchanged at 2.105 bln. bu. and 1.775 bln. bu. respectively. Ending stocks 475 mln. bu. are unchanged and the stocks to use ratio is 11.9% (ample but well below last year’s 22.9%.) Harvested acres 75 mln. (- .6) and yield at 47.4 bpa (+.5). December 1st quarterly stocks at 3.252 bln. bu., above expectations but well below last year’s 3.746 bln. bu. World production steady at 337.7 MMT with Brazil and Argentine production steady at 123 and 53 MMT respectively. World bean usage is 12 MMT above production.
 
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