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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/22 11:40

   Grains Trending Higher at Midday

   Trade is flat to slightly higher across the board at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher at midday with the Dow futures up 
290 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 15 lower. 
Energies are higher with crude up 0.90. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold down $1.30. 


   Corn trade is fractionally to 1 cent higher at midday with trade continuing 
to grind along at the upper end of the range and hold the higher chart trend. 
The weekly ethanol report showed production up sharply at 5.12%, stocks were 
0.58% lower, and gasoline demand was down .6%, with ethanol futures flat post 
report. U.S. export values should remain pretty competitive at current US 
offer, with 130,000 metric tons sold to unknown today with the weekly sales 
report delayed until Friday. Double-crop areas in Brazil look to build some 
moisture in the coming days, but that is slowing planting progress. The USDA 
outlook forum pegged corn acres at 90 million. On the March chart, support is 
at the 10-day at $3.66 with the 20-day at 3.63 below that, with the 200-day 
moving average at $3.76 the highest moving average and major resistance. 


   Soybean trade is flat to 3 cents higher at midday with trade stalling again 
at the upper end of the range in quiet action, with trade shaking off early 
weakness. Meal is narrowly mixed and oil is flat to 10 points lower. The 
weather pattern looks to keep Argentina dry, and Brazil wet in the near term 
which is limiting downside, with podfill season fast approaching for Argentina, 
with the Rosario Grain exchange lowering production estimates again to 46.5 
million metric tons, with USDA at 54 million metric tons on the February 
report. Volatility should continue here in the near term with overbought 
conditions persisting in the near term. Early Brazilian harvest will continue 
despite being slowed by rains, causing some crop losses. The USDA outlook forum 
put soybean acres at 90 million metric tons. An export sale of 110,000 metric 
tons was announced to unknown. On the March, support is the 10-day moving 
average at $10.14, with resistance the $10.39, which is the six-month high 
scored Tuesday. 


   Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents higher at midday with trade staying mostly 
range bound with moisture catching some parts of the Northern Plains overnight. 
The extended forecast continues to be short on moisture for the SW Plains. The 
dollar is higher again today, but remains below 90 on the index. The Russian 
crop will continue to be watched with less cover than usual, with Black Sea 
values continuing to edge higher with export offers in the $206 a ton range for 
the most part. The outlook forum put wheat acres at 46.5 million metric tons. 
On the March Kansas City wheat support is at the 20-day at $4.65 which we 
tested overnight with resistance the 200-day at $4.71 that we slipped below 
earlier in the week.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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